Investment 2011: Where To Invest – How To Invest

The international scene is still very promising for Argentina. Emerging countries and key trading partners of the country at this time, as China and Brazil, continue to lead global expansion, which keeps up the price of commodities and promotes local exports.

A high liquidity and low interest rates complete the global picture positive in 2011 promises to blow in favor again. But, as always, on the board there are questions to keep in mind:

The weakness of the dollar-product of U.S. monetary expansion to bolster its economy, raises at this time, the risk of war or competitive devaluations of currencies., Which occupied the center of attention “and the last meeting of the International Monetary Fund ( IMF), with no agreement in sight. And doubts about the process and recovery “of the United States, nesting in fiscal imbalances. Measure Europe persists. This asymmetry growth among the emerging and developed countries problem causes remain on the immediate agenda, as anticipated by analysts.

To clear the picture is coming and take advantage of opportunities, both locally and internationally, openings in this edition your guide to investing in 2011. Each investment option has its detailed analysis: bonds, equities, metals, currencies, fixed term. The prospects of the assets in the world, with its epicenter in the Brazilian economy. Alternatives in agriculture and real estate, two of the sectors to be increasingly inclined investors. And non-traditional shelters such as art, also disclosed in depth.

The local economy will close this year with growth of between 7 and 8 percent, matching the private study. For next year, the national budget envisages a GDP expansion of 4.3 percent, with the dollar in check, to $ 4.10. In its latest forecast, the IMF predicted that the world will grow by 4.2 percent in 2011, China slightly below 10 percent (9.6), and South America 6.3 percent, on average. Brazil, however, would reduce their pace: would the 4.1 percent growth, from 7.5 to ending this year. Euro Zone and Japan continue around a modest 1.5 percent, while the United States would grow 2.3 percent.

The factor to go back in Argentina when investing is inflation, now located at 25 percent annually according to private estimates (11 percent to the INDEC). In 2011, that percentage will decline, the dynamics of monetary expansion and government spending and the rising expectations of rising prices. Simultaneously, it is expected that the nominal exchange rate movements do not register almost, which will continue the real appreciation of the peso. The relationship between these two variables is a key element that investors should keep in mind when assembling your portfolio.

The recent death of former President Nestor Kirchner opened political questions that will be cleared in the remainder of the year, but should not alter the economic outlook, economists agree. The high rate of growth this year, as well as Central Bank reserves and the favorable international context form a line of defense against possible shocks. Evidence of this was the path of government bonds in the days following the news, which followed the bullish rally that brought in recent months and still have profit margins to drop, as indicated by analysts.

Pablo Ortega.

Excellent Opening Note Magazine – November 2010 – page. 27